U.S. Online Grocery Sales Projected to Grow 5x Faster than In-store through ’29

New 5-year forecast shows overall grocery spending growth slowing, but changes in government assistance, immigration, and inflation could quickly and significantly impact shopping behaviors.

Barrington, Ill. – June 3, 2025 – Slower growth in overall grocery spending is anticipated during the next five years, but the online segment (aka eGrocery) is projected to increase at a CAGR of 8.9% – more than five times faster than the 1.7% rate expected for the in-store segment according to the new Brick Meets Click report, U.S. Grocery Sales 5-Year Forecast: 2025-29. In addition, the online segment, which includes Pickup, Delivery, and Ship-to-Home, will account for 17% of all grocery sales in the U.S. by the end of 2029.

In 2024, annual eGrocery sales finished up just above 9% versus 2023, driven by promotion-fueled year-over-year (YOY) growth in the high teens during the second half of the year, offsetting the absence of growth during the first six months. The surge in eGrocery sales has continued into this year, and as a result, the online segment is expected to post similar relative gains for 2025, with Delivery continuing to drive most of the YOY growth.

With online sales expected to grow 5.2 times faster than in-store sales, eGrocery will account for nearly half of the grocery market’s total absolute dollar growth over the next five years with in-store driving the rest. That said, eGrocery is forecasted to contribute nearly 40% of the gains in 2025 and more than 50% of the gains in 2029.

“As firms, especially grocers, review our new 5-year forecast it’s important to keep in mind that Mass, and Walmart (excluding Sam’s Club) now account for nearly 50% and 40% of today’s eGrocery sales, respectively, and that the topline view includes Ship-to-Home, a service that most grocers don’t offer,” said David Bishop, Partner at Brick Meets Click. “Given these factors, we encourage firms to leverage this national forecast as a guide for examining their regional trade areas in terms of competitive set, household demographics, and growth opportunities.”

The adoption of a more restrictive immigration policy by the current administration is one factor contributing to the forecasted slowdown in sales growth. In fact, the administration employed a similar, albeit less draconian approach during its first term, which caused immigration to decrease at a CAGR of 9% for the first three years, excluding 2020 due to COVID-19. Applying a similar rate through 2028 results in a 54-basis point (bps) drag on the 5-year eGrocery sales CAGR. 

Changes in trade policy, i.e., tariffs, can trigger rapid and significant shifts in buying behaviors due to higher prices. While political uncertainty makes it very difficult to predict how tariffs will impact the grocery market, the forecast calls for grocery-related inflation to run between 2.7% and 1.2% through 2029; this encompasses Food at Home, Housekeeping Supplies, Pet Products, Personal Care Products, Alcoholic Beverages at Home, and Tobacco and Smoking Products. 

Pending legislation linked to supplemental nutrition assistance programs (SNAP) at the federal and state levels is a “gray swan” that could impact growth rates for grocery sales both in-store and online. The proposed changes threaten to reduce payments overall, make it harder for people to qualify for assistance, and/or restrict the types of products eligible under the programs. Approximately 22 million, or 17%, of all U.S. households receive SNAP benefits as of January 2025, so reductions will likely trigger further changes in what, where, and how much is purchased.   

“Grocery retail has always been a dynamic business, but the rate of change over the last five plus years has disrupted shopping patterns, especially for Delivery and value formats, like Walmart, and that disruption is not disappearing anytime soon,” said Bishop. “Before the pandemic, eGrocery’s draw was largely about saving time, during the pandemic it was about protecting your health, and today it’s often more about saving money and time.”

The Brick Meets Click 5-Year Grocery Sales Forecast is an annual initiative that projects how grocery sales are expected to change overall, as well as across in-store and online, offering a deep dive into each service method (Pickup, Delivery, and Ship-to-Home). The forecast is based on a proprietary model that leverages Brick Meets Click research and insights along with secondary sources from various government agencies. The complete forecast and supporting insights are only available in the full U.S. Grocery Sales 5-Year Forecast: 2025-29 report.

Check out the Brick Meets Click website for information about the U.S. Grocery Sales 5-Year Forecast: 2025-29 report which is now available for purchase.

About Brick Meets Click

Brick Meets Click is an analytics and strategic insight firm that connects today's grocery business with tomorrow's needs. Our clear thinking and practical solutions help clients make their strategies and customer offers more compelling and relevant in the changing U.S. grocery market. We bring deep industry expertise and fact-based analysis to the challenge of finding new routes to success.

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