October 2025 eGrocery Sales Total $11.6 Billion, up 10.5% Versus Year Ago

The U.S. online grocery market continues its upward trajectory, with total sales reaching $11.6 billion in October 2025, marking a 10.5% increase year-over-year (YOY)
according to the Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey, sponsored by Mercatus. The dynamics driving this growth are shifting, requiring retail grocery executives to take a deeper look and possibly reevaluate their eGrocery strategies.

User Base Expansion is the Engine

Growth in October was propelled by an expanding base of monthly active users (MAUs).

• The total base of eGrocery MAUs grew almost 13% YOY, reaching a record high of 83.3 million households.
• This MAU expansion was fueled by reengaging infrequent users (who last shopped online 2-3 months ago) and acquiring new households that have never shopped online for groceries.
• This growth rate is the fastest YOY rate since February 2022.
• The MAU base for each of the three receiving methods (Delivery, Pickup, Ship-to-Home) posted gains, with Pickup MAUs setting a new record high.

Shifting Shopping Behaviors and Regional Differences

While the user base is growing, other key metrics show variability, indicating shifts in shopping patterns:

• Order Frequency is Anemic: The YOY gain in the average number of orders per MAU was limited and well under 1%.
  
  • This lack of overall growth was primarily due to a decline in order frequency in Large-Metro markets.
  • Conversely, Medium Metro, Small Metro, and Rest of Market areas posted strong frequency gains, ranging from 7% to 15%.
• Age Group Dynamics: Only 60+-year-old households increased their eGrocery ordering activity YOY, while frequency declined across all younger age groups.
• Average Order Value (AOV) is Pulling Back: The combined AOV for Delivery and Pickup fell by almost 3% YOY.
  
  • Spending per order at Supermarkets was essentially unchanged, but spending at Mass retailers saw a mid-single digit drop.

Ship-to-Home: The Low-Cost Alternative Gains Traction

The Ship-to-Home segment is outperforming the broader market in key areas:

• AOV Growth: Ship-to-Home’s AOV rose approximately 5% YOY. This increase was driven by higher spending rates with Mass retailers and Amazon’s pure-play segment (including their same-day fresh grocery service).
• Market Share: Ship-to-Home now captures more than one-fifth of online sales.

As David Bishop, Partner at Brick Meets Click noted, the results are a "reminder that online grocery sales growth is not on autopilot". The recent uptick of Amazon’s same-day fresh grocery service suggests customers are increasingly choosing options based on cost and convenience, leaning towards lower-cost alternatives.

Share of Wallet Increases

Despite the mixed metrics in frequency and AOV, online’s share of weekly grocery spending finished October at 16.3% (up 110 basis points YOY). This share expansion was mainly driven by higher spending rates in Medium Metro markets and with the younger age groups.

About this consumer research

The Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.

Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on October 29-31, 2025, with 1,485 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping, and a similar survey in October 2024 (n=1,847). Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age and income to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:

• Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via a common carrier or contract courier like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.