U.S. eGrocery Hyper-Growth Trend Driven by Dueling Fulfillment Innovations

Ultra-fast Delivery and sub-same-day Ship-to-Home of fresh groceries have accelerated online demand, posing a threat to traditional grocers who don’t find growth opportunities.

Barrington, Ill. – June 16, 2026 – Since surging more than 20% year-over-year in 4Q24, total U.S. eGrocery sales have sustained that rate of growth for six consecutive quarters through 1Q26, according to the ongoing monthly Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey. This sustained hyper-growth is being fueled by new fulfillment innovations that offer even quicker cycle times for Delivery and Ship-to-Home orders.

The two distinct fulfillment innovations – ultra-fast Delivery and sub-same-day Ship-to-Home of fresh groceries – are attracting a greater share of grocery spending online and eroding the need for quick trips to the physical store. These innovations have allowed Amazon and Walmart to capture more market share by expanding share-of-wallet within their respective customer bases. In addition, while Pickup continues to post healthy gains, its growth rate is being outpaced by both Delivery and Ship-to-Home which are growing nearly three times as fast as Pickup.

Online’s share of total grocery spending has climbed dramatically on a quarterly basis, expanding from less than 15% at the end of 3Q24 to more than 19% in 1Q26. When excluding Ship-to-Home – a service most regional grocers do not offer – online's share of total spending jumped from 12% to nearly 16% over the same period.

During this period of hyper-growth, Walmart and Amazon capitalized on these shifts in demand to expand their dominant positions

• Walmart has achieved larger share gains than Amazon and is now approaching a 40% share of total U.S. eGrocery sales. Delivery has propelled this growth, specifically via orders received within one hour of checkout.
• Amazon captured its share gains by expanding the availability of fresh groceries within its same-day fulfillment network, which recently introduced sub-same-day options with even faster cycle times.

During 1Q26, Brick Meets Click estimates that same-day eGrocery orders accounted for nearly 80% of Delivery orders and over 30% of Ship-to-Home orders across all retail formats. Furthermore, ultra-fast fulfillment (i.e. within one hour or less) made up 18% of all Delivery orders and 10% of Ship-to-Home orders.

“Given this competitive activity, the big question for traditional grocers – and especially regionals – is how they will accelerate growth and remain relevant while protecting profit margins and the customer experience,” said David Bishop, Partner at Brick Meets Click. “To provide some answers, we have integrated growth opportunity mapping into this year’s eGrocery performance benchmarking initiative.”

The 2026 Brick Meets Click benchmarking initiative is currently open to qualifying regional grocers who operate a first-party ecommerce site and/or mobile app. The program evaluates the economic and strategic roles that third-party marketplaces play within a regional operator’s broader omnichannel strategy. Participating banners will remain anonymous and can receive tailored recommendations based on performance gaps against top-performing peers, plus an assessment of current practices regarding customer acquisition, basket building, and retention.

“Our goal is to help regionals identify and prioritize the specific opportunities that will drive stronger financial and operational results over the next one to two years,” Bishop added. “With outputs beginning to flow in late August, the timing is designed to directly support a grocer’s annual planning process.”

About this consumer research

The Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click. The monthly survey began in March 2020 and continues today, surveying around 1,500 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping. Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age and income to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:‍

• Delivery: Includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt, or the retailer's own employees.
• Pickup: Includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
• Ship-to-Home: Includes orders that are received via a common carrier or contract courier like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.

About Brick Meets Click

Brick Meets Click is an analytics and strategic insight firm that connects today's grocery business with tomorrow's needs. Our clear thinking and practical solutions help clients make their strategies and customer offers more compelling and relevant in the changing U.S. grocery market. We bring deep industry expertise and fact-based analysis to the challenge of finding new routes to success.