U.S. eGrocery Market Forecast

The updated 5-year forecast for 2024-28 will be released soon.

The new annual projection provides a five-year outlook on grocery sales in the U.S. The 2024 forecast examines how online sales are expected to change each year through 2028.

The forecast includes outlooks for total grocery sales (in-store and online) that is further segmented by Pickup, Delivery, and Ship-to-Home – with an emphasis on Pickup and Delivery.

The Forecast report is designed to give retail and CPG organizations a comprehensive understanding of the projected U.S eGrocery growth, along with the inputs that drive the forecast through its two-part structure.

• Section 1: Sale Forecast - Examines the outlook from various levels of the business and the components that contribute to sales growth.
• Section 2: External Factors - Explores the factors that a business doesn’t control but that can have a positive or negative impact.

To see the list of figures included in the 2023 Forecast report, click here .

What makes our forecast/model unique

This is a macro view of the U.S. market – We recognize that the outlook will vary based on many factors – trade area, retail format, service configuration, and more. Please use this forecast as a reference to compare how you believe the business will change relative to where your organization is currently positioned.

It’s a bottom-up approach – The forecast is driven by measurable inputs that we’ve observed over time. In addition to shopping metrics, the inputs include external factors that can also influence the way HHs shop for groceries, so you can better understand the logic driving the outlook.

Designed as a starting point for Conventional Grocers – Since grocers may have specific questions and/or would like more guidance, we welcome the opportunity to have one-on-one discussions.  Offering advice and/or making recommendations should occur within the context of a more targeted assessment of your business and market conditions.

About this forecast

The 2024 Brick Meets Click/Mercatus 5-Year Grocery Sales Forecast is an update of the 2023 forecast, resuming an annual initiative that was paused during the pandemic.

The three online grocery segments are defined as follows:

• Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.