The online grocery market in the U.S. declined 3.1% in September versus last year, ending the month with $7.5 billion in sales, according to the latest monthly Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey  fielded September29-30, 2023.

Topline

Declines in order frequency and spending per order contributed to the drop while an expanded base of monthly users softened the slip in overall sales and signaled continued interest in buying groceries online.

“Both Pickup and Walmart are growing share in today’s market for a range of reasons,” stated David Bishop,Partner at Brick Meets Click. “Each helps customers who are searching for ways to save money while Pickup provides more flexibility as to when an order is received by the customer compared to Delivery.”

Key Findings: September 2023 YOY

Lowest order frequency since pre-COVID

Most of the sales decline was driven by contractions in order frequency as the average number of orders per monthly active user (MAU) fell to 2.31, down 8%versus a year ago and only about 14% higher than the 2.03 orders per month posted in August 2019.

The downward movement in order frequency impacted most retail formats to varying degrees. Mass retailers experienced a 4% decline in order frequency among its MAU base, while Amazon’s pure-play segments dropped 7% and Supermarkets fell nearly 13% in September versus a year ago.

Average order values (AOV) constrained

The overall average order value (AOV) fell almost 5% as MAU’s spending per order across all three receiving methods was constrained compared to the prior year.

• Pickup posted the largest AOV decline, while Ship-to-Home dropped slightly, and Delivery remained flat versus September 2022.
• Supermarkets fared better than Mass on this measure; Supermarket AOV held steady versus last year while Mass AOV was down 9%.

More households buying groceries online

The total number of households completing at least one order during the month jumped almost 11% compared to September 2022.

The Supermarket monthly active user (MAU) base expanded by just under 1%, while the Mass MAU base, led by Walmart, surged 20% compared to a year ago.

The jump in total MAU base more than offset the order frequency decline and drove a nearly 2% gain in total order volume.

Cross-shopping between Grocery and Mass grew slightly vs. 2022.

Cross-shopping rates between Grocery (which includes Supermarket and Hard Discount retailers) and Mass continued to climb, increasing 40 basis points versus last year to finish at 28%.

Repeat intent rates drop for both Mass and Grocery.

The gap in repeat rates between Grocery and Mass was halved versus September 2022 as the share of Grocery customers who indicated that they are extremely or very likely to use the same service next month slipped 340 bps to 52% while for Mass it dropped 860 bps to 57%.

Online's share of total spending up YOY.

Online sales across all formats accounted for 12.6% based on total weekly grocery spending during the last week of September, climbing 160 bps versus last year.

Excluding Ship-to-Home, since most conventional supermarkets don’t offer it, the combined contribution of Pickup and Delivery climbed 140 bps to finish the month at 10.5% due to weaker results in the Delivery segment.

Sponsor Message & Appreciation

“Motivating customers to shop with you again online may be challenging – especially when many households are trying to stretch a buck – but attracting new ones is even harder,” said Sylvain Perrier,president and CEO, Mercatus. “To compete more effectively, in addition to promoting more types of money-saving offers such as loyalty rewards, bundled deals, or other promotions, grocers can emphasize the quality, service, and convenience they offer that big-box retailers don’t.”

We thank the team at Mercatus for their continued generous support of this research. Click here to see the Oct. 10, 2023 press release .

About this consumer research

The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus. Brick Meets Click conducted the survey on September 28-29, 2023, with 1,754 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:

• Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.

Results were adjusted based on internet usage among U.S.adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys.Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Brick Meets Click used a similar methodology for each of the surveys conducted in 2023  – August 30-31 (n=1,704), July 29-30 (n=1,795), June 29-30 (n=1,769), May 30-31 (n=1,792), Apr. 28-29 (n=1,746), Mar. 30-31 (n=1,742),  Feb. 26-27 (n=1,745), Jan. 30-31 (n=1,735);in 2022  – Dec. 28-29 (n=1,715), Nov. 29-30 (n=1,749), Oct. 28-29 (n= 1,732), Sept. 29-30 (n=1,752), Aug. 29-30 (n=1,743),July 29-30 (n=1,690), June 29-30 (n=1,743), May 28-29 (n=1,802),  Apr. 28-29 (n=1,746), Mar. 28-29 (n=1,681),Feb. 26-27 (n=1,790), and Jan. 29-30 (n=1,793); in 2021  – Dec. 29-30 (n =1,836), Nov. 29-30 (n=1,785), Oct. 29-30 (n=1,751), Sept. 28-29 (n=1,728), Aug.29-30 (n=1,806), July 29-30 (n=1,892), June 27-28 (n=1,789), May 28-30(n=1,872), Apr. 26-28 (n=1,941), Mar. 26-28 (n=1,811), Feb. 26-28 (n= 1,812),and Jan. 28-31 (n=1,776); in 2020  – Nov. 11-14 (n=2,067), Aug. 24-26 (n=1,817),Jun. 24-25 (n=1,781), May 20-22 (n=1,724), Apr. 22-24 (n= 1,651), and Mar.23-25 (n=1,601); and in 2019  – Aug. 22-24 (n = 2,485).

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